Fact Check: "Death rate from measles could reach 2 per 1,000 infected in Alberta."
What We Know
Recent reports indicate that Alberta is experiencing a significant outbreak of measles, with over 1,000 confirmed cases as of mid-April 2025. The death rate associated with measles is estimated to be between 1 to 3 deaths per 1,000 infected individuals (source). Experts in infectious diseases have expressed concerns about the potential for increased mortality due to the current outbreak, stating that the death rate is likely to be around 1 to 2 per 1,000 cases (source).
This aligns with historical data, where measles has been known to have a mortality rate in this range, particularly in populations with low vaccination coverage (source). The current outbreak in Alberta is primarily affecting unvaccinated individuals, which exacerbates the risk of severe complications and death (source).
Analysis
The claim that the death rate from measles could reach 2 per 1,000 infected in Alberta is supported by both current outbreak data and expert opinions. The reported cases in Alberta have surged dramatically, with health officials warning that the virus is "impossible to contain" given the current transmission levels (source).
The source of the death rate statistic is credible, as it comes from health authorities familiar with measles epidemiology. The World Health Organization (WHO) also supports the assertion that the mortality rate for measles can be as high as 1 to 3 per 1,000 cases, particularly in under-vaccinated populations (source).
Furthermore, the context provided by health experts in Alberta reinforces the likelihood of fatalities occurring as the outbreak continues. Dr. Karina Top, a pediatric infectious disease physician, specifically noted the grim potential for increased hospitalizations and deaths, citing the established death rate from measles (source).
While the claim is based on current data and expert assessments, it is essential to recognize that predictions about future deaths depend on various factors, including vaccination rates and public health interventions. However, the current trajectory of the outbreak and the associated risks make the claim credible.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that the death rate from measles could reach 2 per 1,000 infected in Alberta is substantiated by both expert testimony and historical data on measles mortality rates. Given the ongoing outbreak and the number of cases reported, the potential for such a death rate is realistic and aligns with the assessments of health professionals monitoring the situation.
