Fact Check: "Current trajectory leads to catastrophic 2.7C global heating by 2100!"
What We Know
Recent analyses indicate that under current policies, the world is on track to experience a temperature increase of approximately 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. This projection is based on the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), which states that the combination of existing policies and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will lead to this level of warming (Climate Action Tracker). Specifically, the CAT notes that while NDCs alone could limit warming to about 2.6°C, the actual trajectory, considering current policies, is closer to 2.7°C (Climate Action Tracker).
Moreover, a UN report corroborates this assessment, indicating that without more aggressive climate action, global temperatures could rise between 2.6°C and 2.8°C by 2100 (Reuters).
Analysis
The claim that the current trajectory leads to a 2.7°C increase in global temperatures is supported by multiple reputable sources. The Climate Action Tracker is a well-regarded organization that evaluates the effectiveness of government policies in mitigating climate change. Their methodology involves modeling emissions pathways and comparing them against the targets set by the Paris Agreement. The CAT's findings indicate a significant gap between the pledges made by governments and the actual emissions reductions needed to meet the 1.5°C target (Climate Action Tracker).
The UN report further emphasizes the urgency of the situation, highlighting that without immediate and deep emissions reductions, the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is unattainable. This aligns with the findings of the CAT, reinforcing the credibility of the 2.7°C projection (Reuters).
Both sources are reliable, as they are produced by established organizations with a track record in climate science and policy analysis. The CAT specifically utilizes the MAGICC climate model, which is widely recognized in climate research for projecting future warming scenarios (Climate Action Tracker).
Conclusion
The claim that the current trajectory leads to catastrophic 2.7°C global heating by 2100 is True. This conclusion is based on robust evidence from credible sources, including the Climate Action Tracker and a recent UN report, both of which highlight the insufficient action taken to mitigate climate change and the resulting projections for global warming.
