Fact Check: "Cuomo leads Mamdani with 38% support in NYC primary poll."
What We Know
A recent poll conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion indicates that former Governor Andrew Cuomo leads Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. The poll, which was conducted between June 9 and 12, found that 38% of likely voters intended to rank Cuomo first on their ballots, while 27% favored Mamdani. This represents a significant lead for Cuomo, although Mamdani has shown momentum, having increased his support from 18% in a previous poll conducted in May to 27% in this latest survey (New York Times, Axios).
The poll also revealed that 11% of likely voters were still undecided, and it had a margin of error of 4.3%. In a simulation of the ranked-choice voting system, Cuomo maintained a lead over Mamdani by 10 percentage points in the seventh round of voting, indicating that while he is currently leading, the race is competitive (CBS News, ABC7 NY).
Analysis
The claim that "Cuomo leads Mamdani with 38% support in NYC primary poll" is substantiated by the data from the Marist poll. The poll is considered reliable as it is one of the few quality, nonpartisan surveys available during the final weeks of the primary race. The methodology, including a margin of error of 4.3%, is standard for political polling and adds credibility to the findings (New York Times).
However, it is important to note that while Cuomo has a lead, Mamdani's rising support suggests that the dynamics of the race could change rapidly, especially with many voters still undecided. The poll's timing, just a few days before the primary, means it may not fully capture the impact of late campaign events, such as debates and endorsements, which could influence voter sentiment (Axios, ABC7 NY).
Conclusion
The claim that "Cuomo leads Mamdani with 38% support in NYC primary poll" is True. The Marist poll clearly indicates that Cuomo has 38% support compared to Mamdani's 27%. While the race is competitive and Mamdani is gaining ground, the current data supports the assertion of Cuomo's lead.
