Fact Check: "Could Finland Repel a Russian Attack?"
What We Know
Finland shares a lengthy border of over 800 miles with Russia and has historically been cautious about its military posture due to its proximity to Russian territory. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland joined NATO in 2023, marking a significant shift from its long-standing policy of military non-alignment (Newsweek). The Finnish military has been actively monitoring Russian military activities, with reports indicating that Russia has increased its troop presence and military infrastructure near the Finnish border (Newsweek, Reuters).
Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, deputy chief of the Finnish armed forces, noted that prior to 2022, approximately 20,000 Russian soldiers were stationed near Finland. This number is expected to increase significantly as Russia reorganizes its military structure and potentially redeploys troops from Ukraine (Newsweek). Additionally, Finland has begun constructing a fence along part of its border with Russia, which is expected to take up to four years to complete (Newsweek).
Analysis
The claim that Finland could repel a Russian attack is nuanced. On one hand, Finland has a well-prepared military that has been bolstered by its NATO membership, which provides a collective defense mechanism under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. This article commits all NATO members to defend any member that comes under attack, thereby enhancing Finland's security (Newsweek).
On the other hand, the potential for a Russian attack cannot be dismissed entirely. The Finnish military leadership has acknowledged the possibility of hybrid warfare tactics being employed by Russia, which includes cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns rather than conventional military assaults (Newsweek). Furthermore, the Estonian Defense Minister has warned that if the conflict in Ukraine ends, Russia could redeploy a significant number of troops to its western borders, including those near Finland (Newsweek).
While Finland's military capabilities are strong, the effectiveness of these capabilities in the face of a large-scale Russian offensive remains uncertain. The Finnish military chief has stated that while an attack is possible, it is not likely if Finland maintains unity with NATO allies (Newsweek).
Conclusion
The claim that Finland could repel a Russian attack is Partially True. Finland has significantly enhanced its military readiness and benefits from NATO's collective defense framework, which could deter a conventional attack. However, the evolving military landscape and Russia's potential to utilize hybrid warfare tactics introduce complexities that could challenge Finland's defenses. Thus, while Finland is better positioned than before, the threat from Russia remains a serious concern.
Sources
- What can Finland's armed forces and arsenal offer NATO?
- Finland's Military Prepares as Russia-Ukraine War Gets Closer to Home
- Finland's intelligence chief urges vigilance over planned Russian military build
- Finland Responds to Russia Building Military Facilities ... - Newsweek
- Finland - Anbytarforum
- Finland Says 'Closely' Monitoring Russian Military Build-Up
- Small but Ready: How Finland Has Prepared to Defend Itself
- Malax, Finland - Anbytarforum