Fact Check: Consumer Confidence Falls Below All Economist Estimates in June Survey
What We Know
In June 2025, consumer confidence in the United States saw a notable decline, with the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropping from 98.4 in May to 93.0, a decrease of 5.4 points. This decline was characterized as "unexpected" by various sources, indicating that it fell below many economists' forecasts (Conference Board, Bloomberg). The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions, also fell significantly, indicating a broad-based weakening in consumer sentiment (Conference Board).
The survey conducted by The Conference Board was based on data collected until June 18, 2025, and revealed that consumers were increasingly pessimistic about both current and future economic conditions. Concerns about inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical issues were prevalent among respondents (Conference Board, CNN).
Analysis
The claim that consumer confidence fell below all economist estimates is partially true. While the drop in the Consumer Confidence Index was indeed significant and unexpected, it is important to note that the specific estimates from economists were not universally documented in the public domain. The Conference Board's report highlighted a broad decline across various demographics and political affiliations, suggesting a widespread sentiment of uncertainty (Conference Board).
However, the term "all economist estimates" implies a definitive consensus that may not be fully substantiated. While many economists may have anticipated a more stable or slightly improved confidence level, the lack of published estimates makes it difficult to confirm that every economist's forecast was exceeded by the actual results. The source from Bloomberg noted that the decline underscored lingering anxieties about economic conditions, which aligns with the observed drop in confidence, but it did not specify how many economists had predicted the decline (Bloomberg).
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is generally high. The Conference Board is a reputable organization known for its economic research, and its Consumer Confidence Survey is widely regarded as a key indicator of consumer sentiment. Additionally, Bloomberg and CNN are established news outlets that provide timely economic reporting, although they may have their own editorial perspectives.
Conclusion
The claim that consumer confidence fell below all economist estimates in June is partially true. While the decline in consumer confidence was significant and unexpected, the assertion lacks comprehensive evidence regarding the specific forecasts made by economists. The drop reflects broader economic concerns among consumers, but without clear documentation of all economists' estimates, the claim cannot be fully substantiated.
