Fact Check: Congress is failing to earn votes ahead of the midterms.

Fact Check: "Congress is failing to earn votes ahead of the midterms."

What We Know

The claim that "Congress is failing to earn votes ahead of the midterms" can be assessed through various data points and polls leading up to the 2022 midterm elections. Historical data suggests that the party of the incumbent president typically loses seats in midterm elections. For instance, from 1934 to 2018, the president's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats during midterms (source). As of mid-2022, President Biden's approval ratings were hovering in the low 40% range, which historically correlates with significant seat losses for the president's party (source).

Polling data from the New York Times/Siena College indicated that only 13% of registered voters felt the country was heading in the right direction, with a mere 10% rating the economy as excellent or good (source). This discontent among voters reflects a broader sentiment of dissatisfaction with Congress and the current administration, which could hinder voter turnout and support for the incumbent party.

Analysis

The evidence suggests a troubling landscape for the Democrats as they approach the midterms. The historical context indicates that low approval ratings for a sitting president typically lead to losses in Congress. Biden's approval rating, reported to be around 44% at the time of the analysis, aligns with past trends where presidents with similar ratings have faced significant seat losses (source).

Furthermore, the New York Times poll revealed a stark pessimism among voters, with many believing that the political system is too divided to effectively address national issues. This sentiment could translate into lower voter enthusiasm for the incumbent party (source). Additionally, a Gallup report noted that congressional approval ratings were low, which historically does not bode well for the party in control (source).

However, it is also important to note that the political landscape can shift rapidly. For instance, recent polling indicated that issues such as abortion rights and gun control might energize Democratic voters, potentially offsetting some of the negative trends (source).

The reliability of these sources is generally high, with the New York Times and Gallup being reputable organizations known for their rigorous polling methodologies. However, the interpretation of these polls can vary, and the dynamic nature of political sentiment means that predictions can be uncertain.

Conclusion

The claim that "Congress is failing to earn votes ahead of the midterms" is Partially True. While historical data and current polling indicate significant challenges for the incumbent party, including low approval ratings and voter dissatisfaction, there are also emerging issues that could energize voters and alter the expected outcomes. Therefore, while the evidence supports the notion of a struggling Congress, the potential for shifts in voter sentiment remains a critical factor that could influence the final results of the midterm elections.

Sources

1. The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest
2. 2022 Midterms Poll: Roundup of Key Insights - The New York Times
3. NPR poll: Biden's approval rating up but also warning signs for ...
4. The forces steering the 2022 midterm elections - Washington Post
5. Recent Congressional Approval Trending Higher - Gallup.com