Fact Check: "China produces over 90% of the world's polysilicon."
What We Know
Polysilicon is a critical material used in the production of solar panels, and its supply is dominated by a few key players globally. Recent data indicates that China's polysilicon production capacity is substantial. By the end of 2023, China's capacity reached approximately 2.3 million metric tons, with projections suggesting it could exceed 3.5 million metric tons by 2025 (source-2, source-6). Furthermore, reports indicate that China controls around 94% of the global polysilicon production capacity, with major Chinese companies constituting over 80% of this capacity (source-4).
Analysis
The claim that "China produces over 90% of the world's polysilicon" is supported by multiple credible sources. The data from industry reports confirms that China's polysilicon production capacity is indeed around 94% of the global total (source-4). This figure is corroborated by projections that suggest China's capacity will continue to grow, potentially reaching 5 million metric tons by the end of 2025 (source-6).
However, while the production capacity is a significant indicator, it is essential to differentiate between production capacity and actual production output. The market dynamics indicate that while China has the capacity to produce a vast amount of polysilicon, actual production levels can vary based on demand and market conditions. For instance, the polysilicon market is expected to face a surplus situation, with production potentially exceeding demand (source-2).
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is high, as they come from industry-specific reports and reputable market analysis platforms. However, it is important to note that projections about future production and market conditions can be subject to change based on various economic factors.
Conclusion
The claim that "China produces over 90% of the world's polysilicon" is Partially True. While it is accurate that China controls a significant majority of the global polysilicon production capacity (approximately 94%), the actual production output may vary based on market demand and other economic factors. Therefore, while the claim holds true in terms of capacity, it does not necessarily reflect the entirety of the production landscape.
