Fact Check: "China controls over 50% of global copper smelting capacity."
What We Know
China has established itself as a dominant player in the global copper smelting industry, controlling a significant portion of the world's capacity. Recent reports indicate that Chinese copper smelters accounted for over 50% of global copper smelting capacity as of 2025. According to a Bloomberg analysis, China's smelting capacity has expanded significantly, with state-funded initiatives driving this growth. The Chinese government has strategically supported the expansion of smelting facilities to secure copper supply for its industries, particularly in the context of renewable energy and electric vehicle production.
In 2025, Chinese copper smelters maintained a record production level of 1.254 million tons in May alone, contributing to a refined copper output forecasted to rise by approximately 4.9% to between 12.4 million and 12.45 million tons for the year (source-5). This production surge is attributed to the country's aggressive capacity expansion strategy, which has seen a year-over-year increase exceeding 5% (source-4).
Analysis
The claim that China controls over 50% of global copper smelting capacity is supported by multiple credible sources. A report from China Global South confirms that China has positioned itself as a leader in copper refining, accounting for more than half of global capacity. This assertion is further corroborated by data indicating that approximately 85% of China's smelting capacity is controlled by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which enhances their ability to maintain production levels despite global market pressures (source-4).
The reliability of these sources is bolstered by their focus on industry-specific data and analysis from reputable organizations. For instance, the Mysteel Global survey provides empirical forecasts based on smelter output, while Bloomberg's insights into operational efficiencies and government policies offer a comprehensive view of the structural advantages that Chinese smelters possess (source-4).
However, it is important to note that while China's dominance is clear, the global copper market is experiencing challenges, including negative treatment charges for copper concentrate, which could impact profitability for smelters worldwide (source-5). Nonetheless, the overarching trend remains that China's capacity and output continue to grow, reinforcing its control over the global copper smelting landscape.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that "China controls over 50% of global copper smelting capacity" is accurate based on the evidence presented. Multiple credible sources confirm China's dominant position in the copper smelting industry, supported by significant government investment and strategic initiatives aimed at expanding production capacity. The data indicates that China's share of global smelting capacity exceeds the 50% threshold, affirming the validity of the claim.
Sources
- Record gold prices help keep China's copper smelters ...
- Metals smelting is the West's next critical minerals crisis
- China's Copper Smelting Boom Backfires Amid Global ...
- China's Record Copper Output: Dominance Amidst Global ...
- China’s copper output keeps surging even as strains mount
- COMMODITIES 2025: China to turn up heat in copper ...
- Chinese Copper Smelters to Trim Output in Response to Falling ...
- China's Expanding Copper Influence Forces Strategic ...
