Fact Check: "Chicago has experienced a decrease in murders and shooting incidents in recent years."
What We Know
Recent data indicates that Chicago has seen a decline in both murders and non-fatal shootings. According to the 2024 End-of-Year Analysis: Chicago Crime Trends, homicides decreased by 7.3% from the previous year, while non-fatal shootings dropped by 3.7%. These figures are part of a broader trend that began after the peaks in violent crime observed during 2020 and 2021. Furthermore, preliminary data for the first half of 2025 shows a 33% decrease in homicides compared to the same period in 2024, marking the lowest number of homicides in a decade (Chicago sees 33% drop in homicides through first half of 2025).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim that Chicago has experienced a decrease in murders and shooting incidents is robust. The 2024 End-of-Year Analysis provides a comprehensive overview of crime trends, highlighting the significant reductions in homicides and shootings. This analysis is credible as it comes from the University of Chicago Crime Lab, which is known for its rigorous research on crime and public safety.
Moreover, the report notes that while the overall numbers of murders and shootings have decreased, there are persistent issues regarding the lethality of gun violence. For instance, the lethality of shootings has increased by 44.9% since 2010, indicating that while fewer people are being shot, those who are shot are more likely to die from their injuries (Chicago sees fewest homicides in any May since 2011). This complexity adds nuance to the narrative of declining crime rates.
The WGN report corroborates these findings, emphasizing that violent crime has seen the steepest decline in over a decade, which aligns with the trends noted in the Crime Lab's analysis. The consistency across multiple reputable sources enhances the reliability of the data.
However, it is important to note that while the overall trends are positive, challenges remain. The disparities in gun violence affecting different communities, particularly among Black residents, are significant. The 2024 End-of-Year Analysis points out that Black residents are 22 times more likely to be killed compared to White residents, highlighting ongoing inequities that complicate the narrative of progress.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that Chicago has experienced a decrease in murders and shooting incidents in recent years is supported by credible data from multiple sources, including the University of Chicago Crime Lab and local news reports. While there are positive trends in the reduction of homicides and shootings, the increasing lethality of gun violence and persistent racial disparities indicate that further efforts are needed to address the root causes of violence in the city.
