Fact Check: Canada has fallen behind its peers in GDP per capita growth.

Fact Check: "Canada has fallen behind its peers in GDP per capita growth."

What We Know

The claim that "Canada has fallen behind its peers in GDP per capita growth" is supported by various sources. According to the OECD Economic Surveys, Canada's GDP per capita performance has indeed lagged behind other OECD countries in recent years. The survey highlights that while Canada's economy showed resilience and growth in 2024, its per capita GDP growth has not kept pace with that of its peers, particularly the United States.

Further analysis from the Fraser Institute indicates that from 2014 to 2022, Canada ranked third-lowest among 30 OECD countries for average GDP per capita growth. This decline is significant compared to the earlier period from 2002 to 2014, where Canada’s income growth was more aligned with the OECD average.

Additionally, a report from the National Bank confirms that Canada has struggled with per capita GDP growth over the past decade, particularly exacerbated by a population surge in 2022. This trend has led to a more pronounced decline in per capita income relative to other countries.

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim comes from reputable sources, including the OECD and the Fraser Institute, which are known for their economic analysis. The OECD report provides a comprehensive overview of Canada's economic performance and explicitly states that Canada has not performed as well as its peers in terms of GDP per capita growth. This is corroborated by the Fraser Institute's findings, which detail a significant drop in Canada's ranking among OECD countries from 2014 to 2022.

However, it is important to assess the reliability of these sources. The OECD is generally considered a credible organization with a strong track record in economic analysis. The Fraser Institute, while reputable, has been criticized for its ideological leanings, which may influence its interpretations of economic data. Therefore, while the data presented is factual, it is essential to consider the potential bias in the framing of the information.

Moreover, the National Bank report aligns with the findings of the OECD and Fraser Institute, reinforcing the notion that Canada's GDP per capita growth has not only lagged but has been a longstanding issue. This consistency across multiple sources adds weight to the claim.

Conclusion

Verdict: Unverified
While there is substantial evidence indicating that Canada has indeed fallen behind its peers in GDP per capita growth, the claim remains unverified due to the varying interpretations and potential biases of the sources. The data suggests a troubling trend, but without a consensus on the implications or a clear definition of "peers," the claim cannot be fully substantiated.

Sources

1. Untitled
2. OECD Economic Surveys: Canada 2025: Executive Summary
3. We're Getting Poorer: GDP per Capita in Canada and the OECD, 2002-2060
4. PDF We re Getting Poorer: GDP per Capita in Canada and the OECD, 2002 2060
5. Ranked: Real GDP Per Capita Growth by Country (2014-2024)
6. OECD Economic Survey of Canada - brochure 2025 - English
7. PDF Market View - Canada s lost decade - National Bank
8. Canada's gross domestic product per capita: Perspectives on the return ...