Fact Check: Brexit was good

The Claim: "Brexit was good"

Introduction

The assertion that "Brexit was good" is a highly contentious statement that invites a multitude of perspectives and analyses. Brexit, the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union, has been a polarizing issue since the referendum in June 2016. Proponents argue that it has led to greater sovereignty and economic opportunities, while critics contend that it has resulted in economic decline and increased costs for consumers. This article will explore the available evidence regarding the economic impacts of Brexit, examining both supporting and opposing viewpoints.

What We Know

1. Economic Impact: A report from London City Hall indicates that the UK economy is approximately £140 billion smaller due to Brexit, with significant implications for various sectors, including food prices, which have reportedly increased by an average of £210 per household since the referendum, attributed in part to Brexit-related factors 25.

2. Long-term Projections: According to a Wikipedia entry summarizing various studies, the UK is projected to be £311 billion worse off by 2035 due to Brexit, with predictions of three million fewer jobs and a 32% decrease in investment compared to a scenario where the UK remained in the EU 6.

3. Methodological Approaches: The London City Hall reports utilize synthetic control methodologies to compare London’s economic performance with that of other global cities, suggesting that London's Gross Value Added (GVA) was significantly lower than it would have been without Brexit 47.

4. Economic Recovery and Rejoining Programs: The UK has rejoined the Horizon Europe research program, which may indicate a shift in approach to international collaboration post-Brexit. However, this move also entails financial contributions to the EU budget, which some argue undermines the financial benefits that Brexit was supposed to provide 8.

5. Trade Relations: Reports indicate that trade between the UK and EU has declined due to increased regulatory barriers and red tape, complicating the economic landscape for businesses operating in both regions 10.

Analysis

The claim that "Brexit was good" lacks a consensus in the economic literature. The sources cited provide a mix of quantitative data and qualitative assessments, but they also reflect a range of biases and methodologies that warrant careful scrutiny.

• Credibility of Sources: The London City Hall reports (2, 3, 4, 5) are government-backed analyses, which may lend them credibility but could also introduce bias, as they may emphasize negative outcomes to support policy shifts. The use of synthetic control methodology is a robust approach, yet it relies on the selection of comparable cities, which can influence results.

• Contradicting Evidence: The Wikipedia entry (6) summarizes various studies but does not provide primary data or direct citations, which raises questions about the reliability of the claims made. It is essential to trace the original studies cited to assess their methodologies and findings.

• Conflicting Interests: Some sources, such as the BBC (8, 10), are reputable but may have editorial slants based on their audience. The BBC has been criticized for both pro- and anti-Brexit biases in different contexts, which complicates the interpretation of their reports.

• Methodological Concerns: The methodologies employed in the studies vary significantly. For instance, while synthetic control methods can provide valuable insights, they also depend heavily on the selection of control cities and the variables included in the analysis. A more comprehensive approach would include a wider range of economic indicators and longer time frames to assess the full impact of Brexit.

Conclusion

Verdict: False

The claim that "Brexit was good" is assessed as false based on the available evidence. Key findings indicate that Brexit has led to a significant contraction of the UK economy, with estimates suggesting it is £140 billion smaller and projected to worsen further, potentially resulting in a £311 billion loss by 2035. Additionally, the increase in household costs and the decline in trade relations with the EU further support this conclusion.

However, it is important to acknowledge that the evidence is not without limitations. The methodologies used in various studies can introduce biases, and the interpretation of data may vary depending on the sources consulted. Furthermore, the economic landscape is complex and influenced by numerous factors beyond Brexit itself, which complicates definitive conclusions.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate the information presented and consider the broader context of economic analyses related to Brexit, recognizing that interpretations may differ based on the perspectives and methodologies employed.

Sources

1. Evaluating the Brexit and COVID-19’s influence on the UK economy: A data analysis - PMC. Link
2. New report reveals UK economy is almost £140billion smaller because of Brexit. Link
3. The impact of Brexit on London's Economy - 2023 report - London City Hall. Link
4. The impact of Brexit on London's economy - 2023 report | London City Hall. Link
5. New report reveals UK economy is almost £140billion smaller because of Brexit. Link
6. Economic effects of Brexit - Wikipedia. Link
7. The impact of Brexit on London’s economy – 2023 report – London Datastore. Link
8. Five key impacts of Brexit five years on. Link
9. The impact of Brexit, in charts. Link
10. Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say. Link