Fact Check: "Birth rates in Russia have been declining in recent years."
What We Know
Recent data indicates a significant decline in birth rates in Russia over the past few years. According to Macrotrends, the birth rate in Russia for 2022 was 8.90 births per 1,000 people, which represented a 7.29% decline from the previous year. The trend continued into 2023, where the birth rate further decreased to 8.60, marking a 3.37% decline from 2022. Projections for 2024 suggest a slight increase to 11.11, but this appears to be an anomaly in an overall downward trend, as the forecast for 2025 indicates a decline to 10.89 births per 1,000 people, a 1.98% drop from 2024.
Furthermore, a report from The Moscow Times highlights that in the first two months of 2025, Russia experienced a natural population decline of nearly 119,000 people, with births falling significantly compared to previous years. The report states that births in January and February 2025 were down by 3% compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable 7.6% drop in February alone. This decline has been attributed to various factors, including economic challenges and demographic shifts.
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim that birth rates in Russia have been declining is robust and comes from multiple credible sources. The data from Macrotrends provides a clear numerical representation of the decline in birth rates over the years, showing a consistent downward trend since 2021. This aligns with the findings from The Moscow Times, which not only reports on the declining birth rates but also contextualizes the issue within broader demographic trends, including a significant natural population decline.
Additionally, the analysis by demographer Alexei Raksha, as reported in The Moscow Times, emphasizes that the current birth rates may be the lowest seen in over 200 years, further corroborating the claim of a long-term decline. The reliability of these sources is high, as they are based on official statistics from Rosstat, Russia's state statistics agency, and independent demographic analysis.
While some sources, such as Novaya Gazeta, discuss potential reasons behind the decline, including changes in federal policies regarding maternity benefits, they do not contradict the overall trend of declining birth rates. Instead, they provide context that helps explain the underlying causes of this demographic shift.
Conclusion
The claim that "birth rates in Russia have been declining in recent years" is True. The evidence from multiple reliable sources consistently shows a downward trend in birth rates, supported by statistical data and expert analysis. The decline is significant enough to impact the population dynamics of the country, indicating a pressing demographic challenge.
