Fact Check: Bill Gates predicted the iPod's downfall nearly 20 years ago.

Published June 28, 2025

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VERDICT

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# Fact Check: "Bill Gates predicted the iPod's downfall nearly 20 years ago." ## What We Know In May 2005, Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, made ...

Fact Check: "Bill Gates predicted the iPod's downfall nearly 20 years ago."

What We Know

In May 2005, Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, made a notable prediction regarding the future of the iPod during an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Gates expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the iPod's success, stating, "As good as Apple may be, I don't believe the success of the iPod is sustainable in the long run" (NDTV). He emphasized that mobile phones would likely take precedence as the primary device for listening to music, predicting that "if you were to ask me which mobile device will take top place for listening to music, I'd bet on the mobile phone for sure" (Cult of Mac).

At the time, the iPod was immensely popular, having sold millions of units since its launch in 2001. However, Gates foresaw a shift in consumer preferences toward multifunctional devices, which would eventually include smartphones capable of handling music playback along with other functionalities (Glass Almanac). His prediction came true with the launch of the iPhone in 2007, which integrated music capabilities with phone functions, effectively replacing the iPod as the dominant device for music consumption (NDTV).

Analysis

Gates' prediction about the iPod's decline is supported by historical trends in technology and consumer behavior. His foresight regarding the transition from single-purpose devices to multifunctional smartphones is well-documented. The iPod, while revolutionary in its time, was ultimately outpaced by smartphones that offered a broader range of features, including internet access, apps, and communication capabilities (Glass Almanac).

The reliability of Gates as a source for this prediction is high, given his extensive background in technology and market analysis. His insights were not merely speculative; they were based on observable trends in consumer electronics and the evolution of technology (NDTV).

However, it is worth noting that while Gates accurately predicted the decline of the iPod, he did not foresee Apple's successful pivot to the iPhone, which combined the functionalities of an iPod with those of a smartphone. This pivot allowed Apple to maintain its dominance in the market, despite the decline of the iPod itself (Cult of Mac).

In summary, Gates' prediction was prescient, reflecting a deep understanding of technological trends, although it did not account for Apple's strategic innovations that followed.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
Bill Gates did indeed predict the decline of the iPod nearly 20 years ago, citing the rise of multifunctional mobile devices as the primary reason. His insights have proven accurate, as smartphones have since eclipsed the iPod in popularity and functionality. Gates' analysis of market trends and consumer behavior underscores the validity of his prediction.

Sources

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