Fact Check: "Bill adds at least $3.3 trillion to national debt over a decade."
What We Know
The claim that the Senate bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt over a decade is supported by a recent analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO, the proposed legislation would increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, which is a significant increase compared to the $2.4 trillion cost of a similar bill that passed in the House (AP News, New York Times). This estimate does not account for additional borrowing costs, which could push the total closer to $4 trillion (New York Times).
The Senate bill primarily extends a series of tax cuts from 2017, which are set to expire soon. Extending these cuts represents a substantial budgetary impact, estimated at around $3.8 trillion. To offset some of these costs, Republicans have proposed cuts to social safety net programs, particularly Medicaid, which would further complicate the fiscal landscape (AP News, New York Times).
Analysis
The CBO is widely regarded as a reliable and nonpartisan source for budgetary analysis, making its estimates credible. The analysis indicates that the Senate bill would not only add to the national debt but also lead to a significant increase in the number of uninsured Americans, with projections suggesting that 11.8 million more people could lose health coverage by 2034 if the bill is enacted (AP News, New York Times).
Critics of the bill, including some Republicans, have expressed concerns about the CBO's estimates, arguing that they rely on a traditional scoring system that does not account for the current policy baseline, which they claim would show a reduced deficit (AP News). However, this alternative accounting method has been labeled as "magic math" by some economists and Democrats, who argue it obscures the true costs of the proposed tax breaks (AP News, New York Times).
The debate surrounding the bill highlights a division within the Republican Party, where fiscal conservatives are wary of the high costs associated with the proposed tax cuts. This internal conflict further underscores the contentious nature of the legislation and the varying interpretations of its fiscal impact (New York Times).
Conclusion
The claim that the Senate bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt over a decade is True. The CBO's analysis provides a clear and credible basis for this assertion, indicating a significant increase in the deficit and potential adverse effects on health coverage. While there are dissenting opinions regarding the CBO's methodology, the overwhelming evidence supports the claim.
