Fact-Check: "Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott has reduced his city’s homicide rate by 62%. It hasn’t been this low since 1978."
What We Know
The claim that Baltimore's homicide rate has been reduced by 62% under Mayor Brandon Scott is inaccurate. According to official statements from Mayor Scott, Baltimore experienced a 22.7% decrease in homicides in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a total of 68 homicides recorded—the lowest number in over 50 years. Additionally, a report from June 2025 indicated that the city had seen a 40% decline in homicides since 2020 (source-2).
Furthermore, the homicide rate in 2025 is projected to be significantly lower than in previous years, but it does not reflect a 62% reduction from any specific year or baseline. The claim about the homicide rate being at its lowest since 1978 is also misleading, as the context of the data does not support such a drastic figure.
Analysis
The assertion of a 62% reduction appears to be a misinterpretation or exaggeration of the actual statistics. The 22.7% decrease reported for the first half of 2025 is substantial, but it does not approach the claimed figure. Moreover, the 40% decline since 2020 is a separate metric that does not equate to a 62% reduction from a specific year or overall rate.
The sources cited, including Mayor Scott's press releases and news reports, provide reliable data on crime statistics. However, they do not support the claim of a 62% reduction. The context of the data is crucial; while Baltimore is experiencing a significant decrease in violent crime, the figures must be accurately represented to avoid misinformation.
The credibility of the sources is strong, as they come from official city announcements and reputable news outlets. However, the interpretation of the data must be approached critically, as sensationalized claims can distort public understanding of crime trends.
Conclusion
The claim that "Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott has reduced his city’s homicide rate by 62%" is False. The actual statistics indicate a 22.7% decrease in homicides in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, and a 40% decline since 2020. There is no evidence to support the assertion of a 62% reduction, nor does the data indicate that the homicide rate is at its lowest since 1978 in the context claimed.
Sources
- Mayor Brandon M. Scott Announces Continued Homicide and Nonfatal Shooting Reductions
- Mayor Brandon M. Scott Announces Continued Declining Homicides in 2025
- How Baltimore's violent crime rate hit an all-time low
- Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott says city has fewest homicides in 50 years
- Mayor Scott’s Youth Strategy Cuts Crime in Baltimore
- Mayor Brandon Scott Praised As Baltimore's Homicide Rate Hits 50-Year Low
- Lowest amount of homicides on record: Baltimore Mayor
- Baltimore Mayor Scott rebuts President Trump's remarks on crime
