Fact Check: Are recessions more common under republican presidents?

Fact Check: Are recessions more common under republican presidents?

Published June 7, 2025
VERDICT
True

# Fact Check: Are Recessions More Common Under Republican Presidents? ## What We Know The claim that recessions are more common under Republican pre...

Fact Check: Are Recessions More Common Under Republican Presidents?

What We Know

The claim that recessions are more common under Republican presidents is supported by historical economic data. According to U.S. economic performance by presidential party, since World War II, the United States has experienced 11 recessions, 10 of which began under Republican presidents. This pattern is further corroborated by a report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee, which states that of the 11 recessions in the modern era, 10 have indeed started during Republican administrations.

The analysis by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, as detailed in Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration, also supports this claim. They found that 94 recessionary quarters occurred under Republican presidents, compared to 39 under Democratic presidents, indicating a higher frequency of recessions during Republican administrations.

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is consistent across multiple reputable sources. The Wikipedia article on U.S. economic performance by presidential party provides a broad overview of economic metrics, including recession data, and is generally considered reliable due to its citation of primary data sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The U.S. Joint Economic Committee report is a government publication, lending it additional credibility. It provides a detailed analysis of economic performance under different presidential administrations, reinforcing the claim with specific examples and statistics.

Blinder and Watson's study, published in the American Economic Review, is a peer-reviewed academic source, which adds significant weight to the claim. Their econometric analysis is thorough and widely cited, indicating a high level of trust and acceptance in the academic community.

However, it is important to note that while the data shows a correlation between Republican presidencies and the onset of recessions, correlation does not imply causation. Various external factors, such as global economic conditions and policy decisions made by previous administrations, can also influence the timing of recessions.

Conclusion

Verdict: True

The claim that recessions are more common under Republican presidents is supported by historical data and multiple credible sources. Ten of the eleven U.S. recessions since World War II began under Republican administrations, as confirmed by U.S. economic performance by presidential party and the U.S. Joint Economic Committee. While the reasons for this pattern are complex and multifaceted, the statistical evidence clearly supports the claim.

Sources

  1. U.S. economic performance by presidential party - Wikipedia
  2. The U.S. Economy Performs Better Under Democratic Presidents - U.S. Joint Economic Committee
  3. The Economy Under Democratic vs. Republican Presidents - U.S. Joint Economic Committee
  4. Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration - American Economic Review
  5. U.S. economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents - Simple Wikipedia
  6. Presidential Data 2023
  7. Fact check: Do Republican presidents oversee recessions and Dems recoveries? - USA Today
  8. The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs Republicans - Belfer Center

Have a claim you want to verify? It's 100% Free!

Our AI-powered fact-checker analyzes claims against thousands of reliable sources and provides evidence-based verdicts in seconds. Completely free with no registration required.

💡 Try:
"Coffee helps you live longer"
100% Free
No Registration
Instant Results

Comments

Leave a comment

Loading comments...

More Fact Checks to Explore

Discover similar claims and stay informed with these related fact-checks

Fact Check: There are more recessions under republicans
True
🎯 Similar

Fact Check: There are more recessions under republicans

Detailed fact-check analysis of: There are more recessions under republicans

Jul 19, 2025
Read more →
Fact Check: Transcript
00:00
Are Trump's approval ratings in
the tank? Let's check it out. I
mean every politician would
like this number here
especially to see it go up. How
about compared to other
presidents who are Republicans?
Yeah. It's history making. It's
history making. What are we
talking about here? So why
don't we look back? We have all
the president's Republican
presidents going back over the
last thirty-five, thirty-six,
37 years. What are we talking
about? GOP who strongly
approved 5 months in. Look at
this. George, HW Bush, Bush
forty1, 46%. Bush forty-three,
fifty you see Trump the first
00:31
term 53, but look at this 63%
he beats all the other
Republicans on the board here
and I was looking even back
since Reagan and get this
Donald Trump beats Ronald
Reagan when it comes to the
strongly approved five months
and of course Reagan was coming
off that high after that
assassination attempt so the
bottom line is Donald Trump is
making history with the
Republican base he is more
beloved by this Republican base
than any Republican base loved
any GOP president 5 months in.
It is history making. Even CNN
01:03
is telling the truth. Feels
like hell might be freezing
over.
Partially True
🎯 Similar

Fact Check: Transcript 00:00 Are Trump's approval ratings in the tank? Let's check it out. I mean every politician would like this number here especially to see it go up. How about compared to other presidents who are Republicans? Yeah. It's history making. It's history making. What are we talking about here? So why don't we look back? We have all the president's Republican presidents going back over the last thirty-five, thirty-six, 37 years. What are we talking about? GOP who strongly approved 5 months in. Look at this. George, HW Bush, Bush forty1, 46%. Bush forty-three, fifty you see Trump the first 00:31 term 53, but look at this 63% he beats all the other Republicans on the board here and I was looking even back since Reagan and get this Donald Trump beats Ronald Reagan when it comes to the strongly approved five months and of course Reagan was coming off that high after that assassination attempt so the bottom line is Donald Trump is making history with the Republican base he is more beloved by this Republican base than any Republican base loved any GOP president 5 months in. It is history making. Even CNN 01:03 is telling the truth. Feels like hell might be freezing over.

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Transcript 00:00 Are Trump's approval ratings in the tank? Let's check it out. I mean every politician would like this number here especially to see it go up. How about compared to other presidents who are Republicans? Yeah. It's history making. It's history making. What are we talking about here? So why don't we look back? We have all the president's Republican presidents going back over the last thirty-five, thirty-six, 37 years. What are we talking about? GOP who strongly approved 5 months in. Look at this. George, HW Bush, Bush forty1, 46%. Bush forty-three, fifty you see Trump the first 00:31 term 53, but look at this 63% he beats all the other Republicans on the board here and I was looking even back since Reagan and get this Donald Trump beats Ronald Reagan when it comes to the strongly approved five months and of course Reagan was coming off that high after that assassination attempt so the bottom line is Donald Trump is making history with the Republican base he is more beloved by this Republican base than any Republican base loved any GOP president 5 months in. It is history making. Even CNN 01:03 is telling the truth. Feels like hell might be freezing over.

Aug 4, 2025
Read more →
Fact Check: Most Us recessions are caused by republican presidents
Mostly True
🎯 Similar

Fact Check: Most Us recessions are caused by republican presidents

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Most Us recessions are caused by republican presidents

Apr 10, 2025
Read more →
Fact Check: republican presidents caused the last few recessions in the USA
Mostly True

Fact Check: republican presidents caused the last few recessions in the USA

Detailed fact-check analysis of: republican presidents caused the last few recessions in the USA

Apr 9, 2025
Read more →
🔍
True

Fact Check: Autistic Non-Verbal Episodes in Marriage: Why Words Vanish Sometimes and What to Do About It Neurodiverse Couples Tuesday, august 12, 2025. Here’s the scene: You’re in the middle of a conversation with your spouse. Maybe the topic is small (“Did you pay the water bill?”) or monumental (“Are we happy?”). And then—without warning—your autistic partner’s voice disappears. No yelling, no slammed doors. Just… gone. You’re left holding the conversational steering wheel while they’ve quietly climbed into the trunk. If you’ve never lived with high-functioning autism, this can be tragically misconstrued as stonewalling or contempt. It isn’t. It’s just neurology pulling the emergency brake. Why This Happens: The Science Without the Lab Coat Smell For autistic adults, losing speech under stress is often a shutdown—a form of nervous system overload that knocks language production offline. Think of it like your phone freezing: all the apps are still there, but none of them open when you tap. Research calls this autistic burnout when it happens in a longer, chronic cycle—linked to masking (Hull et al., 2017; Raymaker et al., 2020). Masking is the art of “performing normal” so well that non-autistic people think you’re fine. The issue is that it eats through your energy reserves like a car idling in traffic with the A/C on full blast (Mantzalas et al., 2022). Eventually, one hard conversation can tip you from functional to frozen. And here’s where couples therapy meets neuroscience: physiological flooding—the body’s fight/flight/freeze switch—is a known relationship killer (Malik et al., 2019; Gottman Institute, 2024). In other words, for some autistic partners, flooding may tend to show up sooner, last longer, and is more likely to pull the plug on speech entirely. The Danger Loop in Marriage Autistic partner goes non-verbal — brain says “nope.” Non-autistic partner reads it as avoidance — brain says “attack.” Pressure increases — “Just say something.” Shutdown deepens — and now you’ve both lost. Do that a few hundred times and you’ll start conflating a physiological response into a moral failing. That’s the real marriage-killer. The Protocol: Three Phases, Zero Guesswork This is where we get practical. You can’t “love away” a temporary shutdown, but you can stop it from turning into World War III. Before: Build the Net Name the state. Agree on a phrase or signal ( I call this a couple code)—such as “words offline,” “shutdown,” a hand over the heart. The point is to make the invisible visible. The Shutdown Card. A literal card that says: I can’t speak right now. Please lower lights, reduce sound, give me X minutes. I promise I will circle back. The Pause Rule. Require a minimum of 20 minutes before resuming any tough talk. Autistic partner may need 90+. Agree ahead of time. Downgrade Kit. the usual gear; earplugs, soft light, weighted blanket, fidget, a quiet room. You know, human decency in object form. Reduce Daily Load. Avoid heavy talks right after work or big social events. Chronic overload makes a nervous shutdown more probable. During: Do Less, Better Autistic Partner: Give the signal. Exit stimulation. Switch channels if possible (text, notes app, yes/no cards). Send a short pre-written message: “Safe, can’t talk, back at 8:15.” Non-Autistic Partner: Acknowledge once—“Got it, I’m with you.” Hold the pause boundary. Lower stimuli. Go regulate your own nervous system—walk, journal, pet the dog. Don’t rehearse comebacks. Both: Avoid sarcasm, interrogation, ultimatums. Nothing lengthens a shutdown like moral outrage. After: Close the Loop Check in: “Are you ready to talk, or should we start in text?” Debrief: Identify triggers and what helped. Solve the actual problem. No conflict gets left to rot in the corner. Spot burnout early. If shutdowns start clustering, it’s time to reduce demands, not double them. How This Isn’t Stonewalling Stonewalling is a choice. Shutdown is a lockout. Stonewalling says, “I won’t talk to you.” Shutdown says, “I can’t talk to you yet, but I will.” The key difference? Repair intention. A shutdown protocol builds that right into the process. The Ten-Minute At-Home Drill Co-create your signal and card. Agree on a pause window. Pack the downgrade kit. Rehearse the exchange (“Got it, I’m with you.”). Check in weekly to tweak the system. Remember, you’re not aiming for zero shutdowns. You’re aiming for shorter, kinder, safer ones. Why This Works Because it matches lived autistic experience (Raymaker et al., 2020; Lewis et al., 2023). Because it honors nervous system limits instead of punishing them (Malik et al., 2019). Because it lets both partners keep their dignity and still solve the problem. In other words: you’re building a marriage that can survive the occasional moments when the words are gone for the time being. Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed. REFERENCES: Hull, L., Mandy, W., Lai, M.-C., Baron-Cohen, S., Allison, C., Smith, P., & Petrides, K. V. (2017). “Putting on my best normal”: Social camouflaging in adults with autism spectrum conditions. Autism, 21(5), 611–622. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316671012 Raymaker, D. M., Teo, A. R., Steckler, N. A., Lentz, B., Scharer, M., Delos Santos, A., … & Nicolaidis, C. (2020). “Having all of your internal resources exhausted beyond measure and being left with no clean-up crew”: Defining autistic burnout. Autism in Adulthood, 2(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2019.0079 Mantzalas, J., Richdale, A. L., Adikari, A., Lowe, J., & Dissanayake, C. (2022). What Is Autistic Burnout? A thematic analysis of posts on two online platforms. Autism in Adulthood, 4(1), 52–65. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2021.0079 Lewis, L. F., et al. (2023). The lived experience of meltdowns for autistic adults. Autism, 27(7), 1787–1799. https://doi.org/10.1177/13623613221145783 Malik, J., et al. (2019). Emotional flooding in response to negative affect in romantic relationships. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy, 18(4), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332691.2019.1641188 Gottman Institute. (2024, March 4). Making sure emotional flooding doesn’t capsize your relationship. Retrieved from https://www.gottman.com/blog/making-sure-emotional-flooding-doesnt-capsize-your-relationship/

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Autistic Non-Verbal Episodes in Marriage: Why Words Vanish Sometimes and What to Do About It Neurodiverse Couples Tuesday, august 12, 2025. Here’s the scene: You’re in the middle of a conversation with your spouse. Maybe the topic is small (“Did you pay the water bill?”) or monumental (“Are we happy?”). And then—without warning—your autistic partner’s voice disappears. No yelling, no slammed doors. Just… gone. You’re left holding the conversational steering wheel while they’ve quietly climbed into the trunk. If you’ve never lived with high-functioning autism, this can be tragically misconstrued as stonewalling or contempt. It isn’t. It’s just neurology pulling the emergency brake. Why This Happens: The Science Without the Lab Coat Smell For autistic adults, losing speech under stress is often a shutdown—a form of nervous system overload that knocks language production offline. Think of it like your phone freezing: all the apps are still there, but none of them open when you tap. Research calls this autistic burnout when it happens in a longer, chronic cycle—linked to masking (Hull et al., 2017; Raymaker et al., 2020). Masking is the art of “performing normal” so well that non-autistic people think you’re fine. The issue is that it eats through your energy reserves like a car idling in traffic with the A/C on full blast (Mantzalas et al., 2022). Eventually, one hard conversation can tip you from functional to frozen. And here’s where couples therapy meets neuroscience: physiological flooding—the body’s fight/flight/freeze switch—is a known relationship killer (Malik et al., 2019; Gottman Institute, 2024). In other words, for some autistic partners, flooding may tend to show up sooner, last longer, and is more likely to pull the plug on speech entirely. The Danger Loop in Marriage Autistic partner goes non-verbal — brain says “nope.” Non-autistic partner reads it as avoidance — brain says “attack.” Pressure increases — “Just say something.” Shutdown deepens — and now you’ve both lost. Do that a few hundred times and you’ll start conflating a physiological response into a moral failing. That’s the real marriage-killer. The Protocol: Three Phases, Zero Guesswork This is where we get practical. You can’t “love away” a temporary shutdown, but you can stop it from turning into World War III. Before: Build the Net Name the state. Agree on a phrase or signal ( I call this a couple code)—such as “words offline,” “shutdown,” a hand over the heart. The point is to make the invisible visible. The Shutdown Card. A literal card that says: I can’t speak right now. Please lower lights, reduce sound, give me X minutes. I promise I will circle back. The Pause Rule. Require a minimum of 20 minutes before resuming any tough talk. Autistic partner may need 90+. Agree ahead of time. Downgrade Kit. the usual gear; earplugs, soft light, weighted blanket, fidget, a quiet room. You know, human decency in object form. Reduce Daily Load. Avoid heavy talks right after work or big social events. Chronic overload makes a nervous shutdown more probable. During: Do Less, Better Autistic Partner: Give the signal. Exit stimulation. Switch channels if possible (text, notes app, yes/no cards). Send a short pre-written message: “Safe, can’t talk, back at 8:15.” Non-Autistic Partner: Acknowledge once—“Got it, I’m with you.” Hold the pause boundary. Lower stimuli. Go regulate your own nervous system—walk, journal, pet the dog. Don’t rehearse comebacks. Both: Avoid sarcasm, interrogation, ultimatums. Nothing lengthens a shutdown like moral outrage. After: Close the Loop Check in: “Are you ready to talk, or should we start in text?” Debrief: Identify triggers and what helped. Solve the actual problem. No conflict gets left to rot in the corner. Spot burnout early. If shutdowns start clustering, it’s time to reduce demands, not double them. How This Isn’t Stonewalling Stonewalling is a choice. Shutdown is a lockout. Stonewalling says, “I won’t talk to you.” Shutdown says, “I can’t talk to you yet, but I will.” The key difference? Repair intention. A shutdown protocol builds that right into the process. The Ten-Minute At-Home Drill Co-create your signal and card. Agree on a pause window. Pack the downgrade kit. Rehearse the exchange (“Got it, I’m with you.”). Check in weekly to tweak the system. Remember, you’re not aiming for zero shutdowns. You’re aiming for shorter, kinder, safer ones. Why This Works Because it matches lived autistic experience (Raymaker et al., 2020; Lewis et al., 2023). Because it honors nervous system limits instead of punishing them (Malik et al., 2019). Because it lets both partners keep their dignity and still solve the problem. In other words: you’re building a marriage that can survive the occasional moments when the words are gone for the time being. Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed. REFERENCES: Hull, L., Mandy, W., Lai, M.-C., Baron-Cohen, S., Allison, C., Smith, P., & Petrides, K. V. (2017). “Putting on my best normal”: Social camouflaging in adults with autism spectrum conditions. Autism, 21(5), 611–622. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316671012 Raymaker, D. M., Teo, A. R., Steckler, N. A., Lentz, B., Scharer, M., Delos Santos, A., … & Nicolaidis, C. (2020). “Having all of your internal resources exhausted beyond measure and being left with no clean-up crew”: Defining autistic burnout. Autism in Adulthood, 2(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2019.0079 Mantzalas, J., Richdale, A. L., Adikari, A., Lowe, J., & Dissanayake, C. (2022). What Is Autistic Burnout? A thematic analysis of posts on two online platforms. Autism in Adulthood, 4(1), 52–65. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2021.0079 Lewis, L. F., et al. (2023). The lived experience of meltdowns for autistic adults. Autism, 27(7), 1787–1799. https://doi.org/10.1177/13623613221145783 Malik, J., et al. (2019). Emotional flooding in response to negative affect in romantic relationships. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy, 18(4), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332691.2019.1641188 Gottman Institute. (2024, March 4). Making sure emotional flooding doesn’t capsize your relationship. Retrieved from https://www.gottman.com/blog/making-sure-emotional-flooding-doesnt-capsize-your-relationship/

Aug 12, 2025
Read more →
Fact Check: Since WWII:

Jobs under Democrats: 50 million
Jobs under Republicans: 1 million
Real GDP Growth Rate Dems: 4.3%
Real GDP Growth Rate Repubs: 2.5%
Unemployment Rates: Lower under Democrats
Inflation Rates: Lower under Democrats
Budget Deficits: Lower under Democrats
Stock Market Returns: Higher under Democrats
Recessions under Republicans: 84%
Recessions under Democrats: 16%
Unverified

Fact Check: Since WWII: Jobs under Democrats: 50 million Jobs under Republicans: 1 million Real GDP Growth Rate Dems: 4.3% Real GDP Growth Rate Repubs: 2.5% Unemployment Rates: Lower under Democrats Inflation Rates: Lower under Democrats Budget Deficits: Lower under Democrats Stock Market Returns: Higher under Democrats Recessions under Republicans: 84% Recessions under Democrats: 16%

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Since WWII: Jobs under Democrats: 50 million Jobs under Republicans: 1 million Real GDP Growth Rate Dems: 4.3% Real GDP Growth Rate Repubs: 2.5% Unemployment Rates: Lower under Democrats Inflation Rates: Lower under Democrats Budget Deficits: Lower under Democrats Stock Market Returns: Higher under Democrats Recessions under Republicans: 84% Recessions under Democrats: 16%

Aug 4, 2025
Read more →
Fact Check: Are recessions more common under republican presidents? | TruthOrFake Blog