Fact Check: Are Recessions More Common Under Republican Presidents?
What We Know
The claim that recessions are more common under Republican presidents is supported by historical economic data. According to U.S. economic performance by presidential party, since World War II, the United States has experienced 11 recessions, 10 of which began under Republican presidents. This pattern is further corroborated by a report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee, which states that of the 11 recessions in the modern era, 10 have indeed started during Republican administrations.
The analysis by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, as detailed in Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration, also supports this claim. They found that 94 recessionary quarters occurred under Republican presidents, compared to 39 under Democratic presidents, indicating a higher frequency of recessions during Republican administrations.
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim is consistent across multiple reputable sources. The Wikipedia article on U.S. economic performance by presidential party provides a broad overview of economic metrics, including recession data, and is generally considered reliable due to its citation of primary data sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The U.S. Joint Economic Committee report is a government publication, lending it additional credibility. It provides a detailed analysis of economic performance under different presidential administrations, reinforcing the claim with specific examples and statistics.
Blinder and Watson's study, published in the American Economic Review, is a peer-reviewed academic source, which adds significant weight to the claim. Their econometric analysis is thorough and widely cited, indicating a high level of trust and acceptance in the academic community.
However, it is important to note that while the data shows a correlation between Republican presidencies and the onset of recessions, correlation does not imply causation. Various external factors, such as global economic conditions and policy decisions made by previous administrations, can also influence the timing of recessions.
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that recessions are more common under Republican presidents is supported by historical data and multiple credible sources. Ten of the eleven U.S. recessions since World War II began under Republican administrations, as confirmed by U.S. economic performance by presidential party and the U.S. Joint Economic Committee. While the reasons for this pattern are complex and multifaceted, the statistical evidence clearly supports the claim.
Sources
- U.S. economic performance by presidential party - Wikipedia
- The U.S. Economy Performs Better Under Democratic Presidents - U.S. Joint Economic Committee
- The Economy Under Democratic vs. Republican Presidents - U.S. Joint Economic Committee
- Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration - American Economic Review
- U.S. economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents - Simple Wikipedia
- Presidential Data 2023
- Fact check: Do Republican presidents oversee recessions and Dems recoveries? - USA Today
- The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs Republicans - Belfer Center
