Are EF5 Tornadoes Extinct?
The claim that EF5 tornadoes may be extinct stems from the observation that the United States has not recorded any tornadoes rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale since May 20, 2013. This period, often referred to as the "EF5 drought," has raised questions among meteorologists and researchers about the reasons behind this unprecedented gap. Various sources have explored this phenomenon, suggesting a combination of factors, including changes in assessment methodologies and potential natural variability.
What We Know
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Definition of EF5 Tornadoes: EF5 tornadoes are classified as the most violent tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, characterized by wind speeds exceeding 200 miles per hour and capable of causing catastrophic damage. The last EF5 tornado recorded in the U.S. occurred in Moore, Oklahoma, in 2013 14.
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Duration of the Drought: As of early 2025, the U.S. has experienced over 11 years without an EF5 tornado, marking the longest recorded absence of such events since official records began in 1950 28.
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Factors Contributing to the Drought: Research indicates that the lack of EF5 tornadoes may not be due to a decrease in the occurrence of violent tornadoes but rather changes in how damage assessments are conducted. The National Weather Service (NWS) has reportedly adopted stricter criteria for rating tornadoes, which may lead to fewer EF5 classifications 579.
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Statistical Context: Historical data shows that, on average, the U.S. experiences a certain number of EF5 tornadoes each decade. The absence of EF5 tornadoes since 2013 contrasts sharply with prior decades, where such events were more common 610.
Analysis
The claim that EF5 tornadoes are "extinct" is nuanced and requires careful examination of the available evidence.
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Source Reliability: The sources cited include peer-reviewed articles, reputable news outlets, and official meteorological organizations. For instance, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) provides authoritative insights into tornado ratings and damage assessments 1. However, some sources, like the Wikipedia page, may lack rigorous peer review and should be treated with caution 2.
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Potential Bias: Some articles, particularly those from media outlets, may have a tendency to sensationalize the absence of EF5 tornadoes to attract readership. For example, articles that frame the drought as a sign of climate change may reflect a particular agenda, which could influence the presentation of facts 46.
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Methodological Concerns: The methodology used in assessing tornado damage plays a crucial role in the classification of tornadoes. As noted, the NWS has tightened its criteria for what constitutes an EF5 tornado, which could explain the lack of such ratings in recent years. This raises questions about whether the absence of EF5 tornadoes is a reflection of actual meteorological trends or merely a consequence of changing assessment standards 59.
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Natural Variability: Some researchers argue that the absence of EF5 tornadoes could also be attributed to natural variability in weather patterns. Tornado occurrences can fluctuate significantly from year to year, and a decade-long gap may simply be part of this variability 710.
Conclusion
Verdict: False
The claim that EF5 tornadoes are extinct is false. While it is true that the United States has not recorded any EF5 tornadoes since 2013, this absence is likely influenced by a combination of stricter damage assessment criteria and natural variability in tornado occurrences rather than an actual extinction of such events. The National Weather Service's updated methodologies for rating tornadoes may have contributed to fewer EF5 classifications, indicating that the phenomenon is more complex than a simple extinction narrative.
It is important to recognize the limitations of the available evidence. The lack of EF5 tornadoes over the past decade does not definitively indicate a permanent change in tornado behavior, as weather patterns can fluctuate significantly over time. Additionally, the potential for bias in media reporting and the varying reliability of sources must be considered when evaluating claims about tornado occurrences.
Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information regarding severe weather events and to consider the nuances and complexities involved in meteorological assessments.
