Fact Check: Approximately 2 million people may lose health coverage due to new ACA rules.

Fact Check: "Approximately 2 million people may lose health coverage due to new ACA rules."

What We Know

The claim that "approximately 2 million people may lose health coverage due to new ACA rules" is rooted in recent changes proposed by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). According to a press release from CMS, the agency is finalizing a rule aimed at reducing improper enrollments in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces. This rule is expected to save taxpayers up to $12 billion by addressing issues related to fraud and improper enrollments.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the combination of the expiration of expanded premium tax credits and the implementation of these new rules could lead to an increase in the uninsured population by a total of 5.1 million by 2034, as stated in a letter from Senators Ron Wyden and Frank Pallone to the CBO here. However, this figure is projected over a longer time frame and includes various factors beyond just the new rules.

Analysis

The assertion that 2 million people may lose health coverage appears to be an extrapolation from the broader context of the CMS rule and the CBO's projections. While the CMS rule aims to tighten eligibility verification processes and crack down on improper enrollments, the immediate impact on health coverage is nuanced.

The CBO's estimate of 5.1 million people potentially losing coverage by 2034 includes various factors, such as the expiration of expanded premium tax credits, which are set to end in 2025. This means that while the new rules may contribute to a loss of coverage, they are not solely responsible for the projected increase in the uninsured population. The rule's focus on preventing fraud and ensuring that only eligible individuals receive subsidies is intended to strengthen the ACA marketplace, albeit at the potential cost of some current enrollees losing their coverage due to stricter eligibility checks.

Furthermore, the reliability of the sources is mixed. The CMS press release is an official government document, which typically carries a high level of credibility. In contrast, the projections from the CBO, while authoritative, are based on assumptions that can change with future policy adjustments and economic conditions. Thus, while the claim is supported by credible sources, it simplifies a complex issue that involves multiple factors and timelines.

Conclusion

The claim that "approximately 2 million people may lose health coverage due to new ACA rules" is Partially True. While there is a basis for concern regarding potential coverage loss due to the new CMS rules and the expiration of premium tax credits, the specific figure of 2 million is not directly supported by the most recent data. Instead, it reflects a broader trend projected over a longer time frame, which includes various contributing factors beyond just the new rules.

Sources

1. Wyden-Pallone-Neal_Uninsured_Letter_6-4-25
2. CMS Finalizes Major Rule to Lower Individual Health ...
3. Here's how millions of people could lose health insurance if Trump's ...
4. At least 17 million Americans would lose health insurance ...
5. Millions Would Lose Their Obamacare Coverage Under Trump's Bill
6. Here's How Millions of People Could Lose Health Insurance if Trump's ...
7. HDMI 规格详细整理！HDMI 2.0、2.1 差在哪? 选择哪个好？
8. By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away ...