Fact Check: Analysts Warn of a Potential Slowdown in Solar Demand in Late 2025
What We Know
Recent forecasts indicate a significant slowdown in the growth of global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by late 2025. According to the Global Solar Market Outlook published by SolarPowerEurope (SPE), new PV capacity is expected to increase by only 10% year-on-year to 655 GW in 2025. This is a stark contrast to the 33% growth observed in 2024, which saw 597 GW of new capacity installed. Factors contributing to this slowdown include uncertain policy directions in major markets such as China and the United States, as well as the lack of a unified policy framework within the European Union.
Moreover, a report from Wood Mackenzie predicts that solar growth will stagnate, estimating that global installations could decline by 0.5% to 493 GW in 2025 compared to 2024 levels (source-6). These forecasts highlight a range of potential outcomes, with a conservative estimate suggesting that installations could fall by as much as 8% year-on-year to 548 GW (source-4).
Analysis
The forecasts from SPE and Wood Mackenzie are based on comprehensive market analyses and take into account various influencing factors, including governmental policies, market demand, and technological advancements. The SPE report, in particular, provides a detailed outlook that reflects the complexities of the solar market, including the dominance of China, which accounted for 55% of global installations in 2024 (source-3).
The reliability of these sources is bolstered by their established reputations in the energy sector. SPE is a well-respected organization that focuses on solar energy policy and market analysis, while Wood Mackenzie is known for its in-depth research in the energy and renewables sectors. Both organizations utilize extensive data and expert insights to formulate their forecasts, making their predictions credible.
However, it is important to note that these forecasts also include optimistic scenarios where growth could rebound if component prices remain low and if there is effective policy stimulus, particularly in China (source-3). This variability underscores the uncertainty inherent in market predictions.
Conclusion
The claim that analysts warn of a potential slowdown in solar demand in late 2025 is True. The evidence from multiple reputable sources indicates a consensus on the expected slowdown in solar installations, driven by policy uncertainties and market dynamics. While there are optimistic scenarios, the prevailing forecasts suggest a significant reduction in growth compared to previous years.
Sources
- US solar energy growth to slow as Washington priorities shift
- 製品情報 | 太陽光発電・蓄電池 | 京セラ
- Global Solar Power Growth Set to Slow in 2025: New Forecasts Revealed
- Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2025-2029
- 太陽光発電の仕組みを図解でかんたん解説！特徴や ...
- Wood Mackenzie predicts solar growth will stagnate in 2025
- Solar PV Global Industry Report 2025: Growth Opportunities
- 単機能型蓄電システム Enerezza（エネレッツァ ...
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