Fact Check: A chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq.

Fact Check: A chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq.

Published June 20, 2025
by TruthOrFake AI
±
VERDICT
Partially True

# Fact Check: "A chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq." ## What We Know The claim that a chaotic Iran could lead to a regio...

Fact Check: "A chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq."

What We Know

The claim that a chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq is rooted in the complex geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. According to a report by Shafaq News, Iraq is particularly vulnerable due to its geographical and political ties with both the US and Iran. The report emphasizes that if diplomatic relations between the US and Iran deteriorate, Iraq could become a battleground, drawing in various armed groups aligned with Iran, which could escalate into a broader conflict (Shafaq News).

Furthermore, a 2023 World Bank report indicated that even a moderately intense regional war could potentially reduce Iraq's GDP by up to 10% within a year, highlighting the severe economic implications of such a conflict (Shafaq News). Additionally, Iran's historical tendency to engage in prolonged conflicts, as seen during the Iran-Iraq War, raises concerns about the potential for sustained violence and instability in the region (Shafaq News).

Iran's influence in the region has been described as increasing, with its ability to exert control over local factions through both political and military means (PDF IRAN). This suggests that any chaos within Iran could have ripple effects across its neighboring countries, particularly Iraq, which has a significant number of armed groups with ties to Iran.

Analysis

The assertion that a chaotic Iran could lead to a disaster worse than Iraq is supported by credible sources that outline the potential for regional instability. The Shafaq News report provides a detailed analysis of Iraq's precarious position, noting that armed groups in Iraq could respond aggressively to any conflict involving Iran, thereby escalating tensions (Shafaq News). This is further corroborated by the historical context of the Iran-Iraq War, which resulted in significant casualties and destruction, suggesting that a similar scenario could unfold if tensions rise again.

However, while the potential for chaos exists, the claim lacks specificity regarding what constitutes "worse than Iraq." The Iraq War (2003) was characterized by a complete breakdown of governance, widespread sectarian violence, and a humanitarian crisis. The current situation in Iran, while unstable, does not guarantee a similar outcome. The complexity of the regional dynamics, including the roles of other countries and international actors, complicates predictions about the future.

Moreover, the sources discussing the potential for disaster, while credible, may carry inherent biases based on their geopolitical perspectives. For instance, reports from Iranian opposition media may emphasize the negative aspects of Iran's influence, while other sources may downplay the risks associated with US military presence in the region (PDF IRAN, Shafaq News).

Conclusion

The claim that a chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq is Partially True. There is substantial evidence indicating that instability in Iran could exacerbate existing tensions in Iraq and potentially lead to widespread conflict. However, the specifics of how this chaos would manifest and the extent to which it would surpass the devastation seen in Iraq remain uncertain. The situation is fluid, and while the risks are significant, the outcomes depend on a multitude of factors, including international responses and the actions of regional players.

Sources

  1. PDF IRAN
  2. Iran: une cyberattaque de grande ampleur paralyse les banques
  3. Iraq on Edge: Regional war looms as US-Iran talks struggle
  4. Iraq 2003 vs Iran 2025 | Compare and Contrast
  5. 中国的三个缩写 PRC CHN CN,各用在什么场合或领域?
  6. Iran Update, October 16, 2023
  7. Multiples explosions en Iran il y a une heure - JForum
  8. Israel's and Iran's Military Adventurism Have Put the Middle East in an ...

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Fact Check: It is all about 1948. It's not about October 7, 1956, 1967, 1982, 2008, 2014 or any other date on which Israel committed egregious atrocities in and around Palestine; it's all about 1948, and it's important to remember this date well. The war and the complete failure of all attempts to achieve a viable peace have pushed Palestine back to this date. The 76 years that have passed have been a fruitless struggle for 'peace'. All they have done is give Israel four decades to reinforce its total control over Palestine. This is all about history. Understanding the struggle for Palestine requires understanding its historical context. The modern history commences with Britain using the Zionists, while simultaneously being utilized by them, to establish an imperial foothold in the Middle East, effectively transforming Israel into the central pillar of a bridge from Egypt and the Nile to Iraq, its oil, and the Gulf. The calculations were devoid of morality, driven solely by self-interest. Britain had no right to cede a portion of the area it was occupying—Palestine—to another occupier, and the UN similarly lacked the authority to do so. The 1947 General Assembly partition resolution was essentially a US resolution anyway; the numbers were fixed by the White House once it became clear that it would fail. Chaim Weizmann, the prominent Zionist leader in London and Washington, requested Truman's intervention. “I am aware of how much abstaining delegations would be swayed by your counsel and the influence of your government,” he informed the president. “I refer to China, Honduras, Colombia, Mexico, Liberia, Ethiopia, Greece. I beg and pray for your decisive intervention at this decisive hour.” Among the countries that needed a push were the Philippines, Cuba, Haiti, and France. “We went for it," stated Clark Clifford, Truman’s special counsel, subsequently. “It was because the White House was for it that it went through. I kept the ramrod up the State Department’s butt.” Herschel Johnson, the deputy chief of the US mission at the UN, cried in frustration while speaking to Loy Henderson, a senior diplomat and head of the State Department’s Office of Near Eastern Affairs, who was a staunch adversary of the construction of a Zionist settler state in Palestine. “Loy, forgive me for breaking down like this,” Johnson stated, “but Dave Niles called us here a couple of days ago and said that the president had instructed him to tell us that, by God, he wanted us to get busy and get all the votes that we possibly could, that there would be hell if the voting went the other way.” In September, UNSCOP (the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine) convened an ad hoc committee to evaluate its proposals. The committee consisted of all members of the General Assembly, with subcommittees designated to evaluate the suggestions presented. On November 25, the General Assembly, acting as an ad hoc committee, approved partition with a vote of 25 in favor, 13 against, and 17 abstentions. A two-thirds majority was required for the partition resolution to succeed in the General Assembly plenary session four days later, indicating its impending failure. However, following the White House's endorsement, seven of the 17 abstainers from November 25 voted 'yes' on November 29, resulting in the passage of Resolution 181 (II) with 33 votes in favor, 13 against, and 10 abstentions. Niles, the Zionists' ‘point man’ at the White House, subsequently partnered with Clark Clifford to undermine the State Department's proposal to replace partition with trusteeship for the time being because of the violence threatened in Palestine. Niles was the first member of a series of Zionist lobbyists sent to monitor the presidency from within. Despite their unpopularity and potential resentment, the presidents had no choice but to tolerate their persistent pressure. During John Kennedy's administration, Mike (Myer) Feldman was permitted to oversee all State Department and White House cable concerning the Middle East. Despite internal opposition within the White House, Kennedy perceived Feldman “as a necessary evil whose highly visible White House position was a political debt that had to be paid,” as noted by Seymour Hersh in The Samson Option. Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy (p. 98). Lyndon Johnson took over Feldman after Kennedy's assassination, granting Israel all its demands without offering anything in return. The transfer of Palestine to a recent settler minority contravened fundamental UN norms, including the right to self-determination. Resistance to Zionism and the formation of a Jewish state in Palestine were significant within the US administration, but it was the man in the White House, influenced by domestic interests (money and votes), who called the shots and has been calling them ever since. Palestine went from British control to American hands, and then to the Zionists. 29 November 1947 - partition plans. 33 voted for, 13 voted against, 10 abstained The desires of the Palestinians were irrelevant to the 'return' of the Jewish people to their ''ancient homeland'', as noted by Arthur Balfour. The fact that Jews could not 'return’ to a land in which they or their ancestors had never lived was equally immaterial. What went on behind closed doors to ensure the establishment of a colonial-settler state in Palestine, contrary to the desires of its populace, represents but one episode in a protracted history of duplicity, deceit, persistent breaches of international law, and violations of fundamental UN principles. The so-called "Palestine problem" has never been a "Palestine problem," but rather a Western and Zionist problem—a volatile combination of the two that the perpetrators are still blaming on their victims. There would be no ambiguity regarding our current situation at the precipice if Western governments and the media held Israel accountable rather than shielding, endorsing, and rationalizing even the most egregious offenses under the pretext of Israel's 'right' to self-defense. It is absurd to propose that a thief has any form of 'right' to 'defend' stolen property. The right belongs to the person fighting for its return, as the Palestinians have been doing daily since 1948. Aside from the 5–6% of land acquired by Zionist purchasing agencies before 1948, Israelis are living on and in stolen property. They will defend it, but they have no 'right' to defend something that, by any legal, moral, historical, or cultural measure, belongs to someone else. This has never been a 'conflict of rights' as 'liberal' Zionists have claimed, because a right is a right and cannot conflict with another right. The real rights in this context are evident, or would be, if they were not persistently suppressed by Western governments and a media that unconditionally safeguards Israel's actions. Although the non-binding UNGA partition resolution of that year did not include a 'transfer' of the Palestinian population, the creation of a Jewish state would have been more challenging without it. Without the expulsion of indigenous Palestinians, the demographic composition of the 'Jewish state' would have included an equal number of Palestinian Muslims and Christians alongside Jews. War was the sole means of getting rid of Palestinian natives; raw force achieved what Theodor Herzl envisioned when he referred to “spiriting” the “penniless population” from their land. Upon its completion, Weizmann expressed excitement regarding this "miraculous simplification of our task." Following 1948, there were massacres in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jordan; massacres in Lebanon; and wars and assassinations throughout the region and beyond. A second wave of ethnic cleansing succeeded the 1948 one in 1967, and now a third and fourth wave is taking place in Gaza and southern Lebanon, terrorizing and slaughtering town dwellers and villagers into fleeing. https://preview.redd.it/orxl88k6mfoe1.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12103a2b560e3af2f72c656e6e39fdbea64caa11 Western governments and the media are facilitating the gradual, covert, illegal, and pseudo-legal erosion of Palestinian life and rights in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. It is remarkable how the media constantly discusses October 7 but never talks about any of this critical history. Of course, as an accomplice to one of the biggest crimes of the 20th century, meticulously orchestrated and executed violently, discussing it candidly would entail self-incrimination; thus, it diverts the discourse to alternative subjects—''Hamas terrorism'', ''October 7''—anything to distract from Israel's egregious war crimes. This distortion of the narrative has persisted since the PLO and the popular fronts of the 1960s were labeled as terrorists, while Israel was portrayed as a plucky small state merely defending itself. The Poles, the French, and other Europeans opposed the Nazi occupation. The distinction is clear: resistance to occupation by Palestinians is labeled as terrorism, while state-sponsored terrorism is characterized as 'self-defense.' This distortion of truth has been outrageously amplified following the pager/walkie-talkie terrorist acts perpetrated by Israel in Lebanon. Western governments and their connected media entities have rationalized and even lauded them. The Palestinians demonstrated their readiness to transcend the events of 1948 and to make significant concessions for peace —22 percent of the land in exchange for relinquishing 78 percent—provided Israel would engage sincerely with the rights of the 1948 generation; nevertheless, Israel ignored their offers contemptuously. The Palestinians were willing to share Jerusalem, but Israel was not receptive to this proposition. It had consistently desired all of Palestine. The Netanyahu government, seeing no need for such concealment, now unveils the truth that the 1990s 'peace process' and previous proposals from various diplomatic entities obscured. It explicitly states its desires, regardless of the opinions of others, including former partners, which align with the initial aspirations of the Zionist movement: all of Palestine, ideally devoid of Palestinians. Israel's refusal to cede any portion of Palestine has blurred the distinctions between the pre- and post-1967 eras. There are no delineating green lines between occupied and unoccupied territories, only the red lines that Israel transgresses daily. Deprived of even a small portion of their homeland, Palestinians and their supporters are compelled to resort to resistance and are resolute in their pursuit of reclaiming all of 1948 Palestine, rather than merely the limited fraction they previously would have accepted. Western countries facilitate and even promote Israel's existence outside international law by providing arms and financial assistance. Israel's occupation, massacres, and assassinations occur because of Western governments' tacit approval and encouragement. If Israel commits genocide, it is due to Western nations' acquiescence and implicit endorsement. If Israel is condemning itself to endless war with those whose fundamental rights it has infringed upon for the past 76 years, it is due to Western governments' acceptance. They have allowed Israel to push the world to the brink of regional and even global conflict. Israel is chaotic, yet it has never been orderly. The West has also permitted this, and it will face consequences.

Detailed fact-check analysis of: It is all about 1948. It's not about October 7, 1956, 1967, 1982, 2008, 2014 or any other date on which Israel committed egregious atrocities in and around Palestine; it's all about 1948, and it's important to remember this date well. The war and the complete failure of all attempts to achieve a viable peace have pushed Palestine back to this date. The 76 years that have passed have been a fruitless struggle for 'peace'. All they have done is give Israel four decades to reinforce its total control over Palestine. This is all about history. Understanding the struggle for Palestine requires understanding its historical context. The modern history commences with Britain using the Zionists, while simultaneously being utilized by them, to establish an imperial foothold in the Middle East, effectively transforming Israel into the central pillar of a bridge from Egypt and the Nile to Iraq, its oil, and the Gulf. The calculations were devoid of morality, driven solely by self-interest. Britain had no right to cede a portion of the area it was occupying—Palestine—to another occupier, and the UN similarly lacked the authority to do so. The 1947 General Assembly partition resolution was essentially a US resolution anyway; the numbers were fixed by the White House once it became clear that it would fail. Chaim Weizmann, the prominent Zionist leader in London and Washington, requested Truman's intervention. “I am aware of how much abstaining delegations would be swayed by your counsel and the influence of your government,” he informed the president. “I refer to China, Honduras, Colombia, Mexico, Liberia, Ethiopia, Greece. I beg and pray for your decisive intervention at this decisive hour.” Among the countries that needed a push were the Philippines, Cuba, Haiti, and France. “We went for it," stated Clark Clifford, Truman’s special counsel, subsequently. “It was because the White House was for it that it went through. I kept the ramrod up the State Department’s butt.” Herschel Johnson, the deputy chief of the US mission at the UN, cried in frustration while speaking to Loy Henderson, a senior diplomat and head of the State Department’s Office of Near Eastern Affairs, who was a staunch adversary of the construction of a Zionist settler state in Palestine. “Loy, forgive me for breaking down like this,” Johnson stated, “but Dave Niles called us here a couple of days ago and said that the president had instructed him to tell us that, by God, he wanted us to get busy and get all the votes that we possibly could, that there would be hell if the voting went the other way.” In September, UNSCOP (the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine) convened an ad hoc committee to evaluate its proposals. The committee consisted of all members of the General Assembly, with subcommittees designated to evaluate the suggestions presented. On November 25, the General Assembly, acting as an ad hoc committee, approved partition with a vote of 25 in favor, 13 against, and 17 abstentions. A two-thirds majority was required for the partition resolution to succeed in the General Assembly plenary session four days later, indicating its impending failure. However, following the White House's endorsement, seven of the 17 abstainers from November 25 voted 'yes' on November 29, resulting in the passage of Resolution 181 (II) with 33 votes in favor, 13 against, and 10 abstentions. Niles, the Zionists' ‘point man’ at the White House, subsequently partnered with Clark Clifford to undermine the State Department's proposal to replace partition with trusteeship for the time being because of the violence threatened in Palestine. Niles was the first member of a series of Zionist lobbyists sent to monitor the presidency from within. Despite their unpopularity and potential resentment, the presidents had no choice but to tolerate their persistent pressure. During John Kennedy's administration, Mike (Myer) Feldman was permitted to oversee all State Department and White House cable concerning the Middle East. Despite internal opposition within the White House, Kennedy perceived Feldman “as a necessary evil whose highly visible White House position was a political debt that had to be paid,” as noted by Seymour Hersh in The Samson Option. Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy (p. 98). Lyndon Johnson took over Feldman after Kennedy's assassination, granting Israel all its demands without offering anything in return. The transfer of Palestine to a recent settler minority contravened fundamental UN norms, including the right to self-determination. Resistance to Zionism and the formation of a Jewish state in Palestine were significant within the US administration, but it was the man in the White House, influenced by domestic interests (money and votes), who called the shots and has been calling them ever since. Palestine went from British control to American hands, and then to the Zionists. 29 November 1947 - partition plans. 33 voted for, 13 voted against, 10 abstained The desires of the Palestinians were irrelevant to the 'return' of the Jewish people to their ''ancient homeland'', as noted by Arthur Balfour. The fact that Jews could not 'return’ to a land in which they or their ancestors had never lived was equally immaterial. What went on behind closed doors to ensure the establishment of a colonial-settler state in Palestine, contrary to the desires of its populace, represents but one episode in a protracted history of duplicity, deceit, persistent breaches of international law, and violations of fundamental UN principles. The so-called "Palestine problem" has never been a "Palestine problem," but rather a Western and Zionist problem—a volatile combination of the two that the perpetrators are still blaming on their victims. There would be no ambiguity regarding our current situation at the precipice if Western governments and the media held Israel accountable rather than shielding, endorsing, and rationalizing even the most egregious offenses under the pretext of Israel's 'right' to self-defense. It is absurd to propose that a thief has any form of 'right' to 'defend' stolen property. The right belongs to the person fighting for its return, as the Palestinians have been doing daily since 1948. Aside from the 5–6% of land acquired by Zionist purchasing agencies before 1948, Israelis are living on and in stolen property. They will defend it, but they have no 'right' to defend something that, by any legal, moral, historical, or cultural measure, belongs to someone else. This has never been a 'conflict of rights' as 'liberal' Zionists have claimed, because a right is a right and cannot conflict with another right. The real rights in this context are evident, or would be, if they were not persistently suppressed by Western governments and a media that unconditionally safeguards Israel's actions. Although the non-binding UNGA partition resolution of that year did not include a 'transfer' of the Palestinian population, the creation of a Jewish state would have been more challenging without it. Without the expulsion of indigenous Palestinians, the demographic composition of the 'Jewish state' would have included an equal number of Palestinian Muslims and Christians alongside Jews. War was the sole means of getting rid of Palestinian natives; raw force achieved what Theodor Herzl envisioned when he referred to “spiriting” the “penniless population” from their land. Upon its completion, Weizmann expressed excitement regarding this "miraculous simplification of our task." Following 1948, there were massacres in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jordan; massacres in Lebanon; and wars and assassinations throughout the region and beyond. A second wave of ethnic cleansing succeeded the 1948 one in 1967, and now a third and fourth wave is taking place in Gaza and southern Lebanon, terrorizing and slaughtering town dwellers and villagers into fleeing. https://preview.redd.it/orxl88k6mfoe1.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12103a2b560e3af2f72c656e6e39fdbea64caa11 Western governments and the media are facilitating the gradual, covert, illegal, and pseudo-legal erosion of Palestinian life and rights in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. It is remarkable how the media constantly discusses October 7 but never talks about any of this critical history. Of course, as an accomplice to one of the biggest crimes of the 20th century, meticulously orchestrated and executed violently, discussing it candidly would entail self-incrimination; thus, it diverts the discourse to alternative subjects—''Hamas terrorism'', ''October 7''—anything to distract from Israel's egregious war crimes. This distortion of the narrative has persisted since the PLO and the popular fronts of the 1960s were labeled as terrorists, while Israel was portrayed as a plucky small state merely defending itself. The Poles, the French, and other Europeans opposed the Nazi occupation. The distinction is clear: resistance to occupation by Palestinians is labeled as terrorism, while state-sponsored terrorism is characterized as 'self-defense.' This distortion of truth has been outrageously amplified following the pager/walkie-talkie terrorist acts perpetrated by Israel in Lebanon. Western governments and their connected media entities have rationalized and even lauded them. The Palestinians demonstrated their readiness to transcend the events of 1948 and to make significant concessions for peace —22 percent of the land in exchange for relinquishing 78 percent—provided Israel would engage sincerely with the rights of the 1948 generation; nevertheless, Israel ignored their offers contemptuously. The Palestinians were willing to share Jerusalem, but Israel was not receptive to this proposition. It had consistently desired all of Palestine. The Netanyahu government, seeing no need for such concealment, now unveils the truth that the 1990s 'peace process' and previous proposals from various diplomatic entities obscured. It explicitly states its desires, regardless of the opinions of others, including former partners, which align with the initial aspirations of the Zionist movement: all of Palestine, ideally devoid of Palestinians. Israel's refusal to cede any portion of Palestine has blurred the distinctions between the pre- and post-1967 eras. There are no delineating green lines between occupied and unoccupied territories, only the red lines that Israel transgresses daily. Deprived of even a small portion of their homeland, Palestinians and their supporters are compelled to resort to resistance and are resolute in their pursuit of reclaiming all of 1948 Palestine, rather than merely the limited fraction they previously would have accepted. Western countries facilitate and even promote Israel's existence outside international law by providing arms and financial assistance. Israel's occupation, massacres, and assassinations occur because of Western governments' tacit approval and encouragement. If Israel commits genocide, it is due to Western nations' acquiescence and implicit endorsement. If Israel is condemning itself to endless war with those whose fundamental rights it has infringed upon for the past 76 years, it is due to Western governments' acceptance. They have allowed Israel to push the world to the brink of regional and even global conflict. Israel is chaotic, yet it has never been orderly. The West has also permitted this, and it will face consequences.

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Fact Check: A chaotic Iran could lead to a regional disaster worse than Iraq. | TruthOrFake Blog