The Claim: "92% of mass shootings occur in gun-free zones"

Introduction

The assertion that "92% of mass shootings occur in gun-free zones" has circulated widely in discussions surrounding gun control and public safety. This claim suggests a significant correlation between the designation of gun-free zones and the prevalence of mass shootings, implying that such zones may be inherently unsafe. However, the validity of this statistic is contested, with various studies and analyses presenting differing perspectives on the relationship between mass shootings and gun-free zones.

What We Know

1. Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC): A report from CPRC claims that 97.8% of mass public shootings from 1950 to May 2018 occurred in gun-free zones, suggesting a strong link between these zones and mass shootings 2. However, this data has been criticized for its methodology and the definition of mass shootings used.

2. Everytown for Gun Safety: A study by Everytown found that only 10% of mass shootings occurred in gun-free zones between 2009 and 2016. The majority of mass shootings, according to their definition (four or more victims), took place in private residences, which are not classified as gun-free zones 38.

3. Recent Studies: A 2024 study published in The Lancet indicates that gun-free zones may actually reduce the risk of mass shootings, challenging the idea that they attract shooters. The study found that 48% of shootings occurred in gun-free zones, and a matched pairs analysis suggested that active shootings were 62.5% less likely in these areas 19.

4. Washington Post Fact Check: A fact-check by the Washington Post highlighted that the CPRC's claims about mass shootings in gun-free zones are misleading and lack robust evidence. They noted that the CPRC's methodology and selection of data could lead to inflated percentages 5.

5. RAND Corporation Analysis: An analysis by the RAND Corporation corroborated findings that only a small percentage of mass shootings occur in designated gun-free zones, further emphasizing the need for careful interpretation of data in this area 10.

Analysis

The claim that 92% of mass shootings occur in gun-free zones is primarily supported by the CPRC, which has been criticized for its data selection and methodology. The CPRC's analysis includes a broad definition of mass shootings and may not account for the context in which these shootings occur. Critics argue that their findings do not align with more comprehensive studies, such as those conducted by Everytown for Gun Safety and the RAND Corporation, which present a significantly lower percentage of shootings occurring in gun-free zones.

The contrasting findings raise questions about the reliability of the sources. The CPRC has been noted for its pro-gun stance, which may introduce bias into its analyses. In contrast, Everytown for Gun Safety, while also having an agenda related to gun control, bases its findings on a larger dataset and a different definition of mass shootings, which may provide a more nuanced understanding of the issue.

The methodology of studies claiming high percentages of mass shootings in gun-free zones often lacks transparency, making it difficult to assess their validity. For instance, the CPRC's claim relies on a historical dataset that may not reflect current trends or the evolving nature of gun violence in the U.S.

Conclusion

Verdict: False

The claim that "92% of mass shootings occur in gun-free zones" is false. Key evidence leading to this conclusion includes the contrasting findings from multiple reputable sources. The Crime Prevention Research Center's assertion is heavily criticized for its methodology and potential bias, while studies from Everytown for Gun Safety and the RAND Corporation indicate that a significantly lower percentage of mass shootings occur in gun-free zones. Furthermore, recent research suggests that gun-free zones may actually reduce the likelihood of mass shootings.

It is important to note that while the CPRC's data may reflect a specific interpretation of mass shooting incidents, it does not align with broader analyses that consider a wider range of contexts and definitions. The limitations of the available evidence, particularly regarding the transparency and rigor of the CPRC's methodology, highlight the need for caution when interpreting such claims.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and consider the sources and methodologies behind statistics, especially in contentious debates such as gun control and public safety.

Sources

1. Study suggests gun-free zones do not attract mass shootings - UC Davis Health: Link 1
2. Findings from the Crime Prevention Research Center - Oregon Legislature: Link 2
3. Claims misrepresent mass shootings in 'gun-free zones' - AP News: Link 3
4. Public Mass Shootings: Database Amasses Details of a Half Century US Mass Shootings - National Institute of Justice: Link 4
5. Do 98 percent of mass public shootings happen in gun-free zones? - Washington Post: Link 5
6. More misleading information from Bloomberg's Everytown for Gun Safety - Crime Research: Link 6
7. Gun-free zones and active shootings in the United States - The Lancet: Link 7
8. Do most mass shootings happen in gun-free zones? - PolitiFact: Link 8
9. Gun-free zones and active shootings in the United States - ScienceDirect: Link 9
10. The Effects of Gun-Free Zones - RAND Corporation: Link 10