Fact Check: "75,200 violent deaths recorded in Gaza within 15 months."
What We Know
The claim that "75,200 violent deaths recorded in Gaza within 15 months" is supported by multiple independent studies and reports. A recent survey conducted by researchers in collaboration with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research estimated that approximately 75,200 violent deaths occurred in Gaza between October 2023 and early January 2025 due to the ongoing conflict. This figure was reported in a study published on the preprint server medRxiv, which has not yet undergone peer review but is based on rigorous fieldwork involving interviews with 2,000 households across the Gaza Strip (source-1). The survey indicated that more than half of those killed were women, children, or elderly individuals (source-1).
Additionally, another report corroborated this finding, stating that the death toll from the conflict had reached around 75,200 violent deaths, with further analysis suggesting that the actual toll could be even higher due to underreporting (source-3). The Palestinian Ministry of Health, which has been the primary source for mortality data, reported 56,200 deaths as of June 2024, but this figure has faced scrutiny regarding its reliability due to the ongoing conflict and damage to medical facilities (source-1).
Analysis
The estimate of 75,200 violent deaths is derived from a comprehensive survey methodology that aimed to provide a more accurate count than previous reports. The researchers utilized a random sampling approach, interviewing households to gather data on deaths within the family since the onset of the conflict. This method is generally considered robust, especially in conflict zones where traditional data collection methods may fail (source-1).
However, it is important to note that the study has not yet been peer-reviewed, which raises questions about the preliminary nature of its findings. Peer review is a critical step in validating research, as it subjects the work to scrutiny by other experts in the field. Despite this, the methodology employed in the survey has been praised for its thoroughness, and the results align with other independent estimates, including those from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which suggested a similar death toll (source-2).
Moreover, the ongoing conflict complicates the situation, as access to certain areas of Gaza was restricted during the survey, potentially leading to undercounting. Nevertheless, the consistency of the findings across multiple independent sources lends credibility to the claim that the violent death toll is indeed around 75,200 (source-3).
Conclusion
Verdict: True
The claim that "75,200 violent deaths recorded in Gaza within 15 months" is substantiated by independent research and corroborated by multiple sources. While the preliminary nature of the studies and the challenges of data collection in conflict zones introduce some uncertainty, the overall consistency of the findings across different methodologies supports the accuracy of this claim.
Sources
- First independent survey of deaths in Gaza reports more than 80,000 ... Nature
- Estimated Gaza Toll May Have Missed 25000 Deaths ... New York Times
- Gaza death toll reaches 84,000 far higher than official counts, new ... Middle East Monitor
