Fact Check: 40C days in the UK now 20 times more likely than in the 1960s.

Fact Check: "40C days in the UK now 20 times more likely than in the 1960s."

What We Know

Recent studies conducted by the Met Office have confirmed a significant increase in the likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK. According to a report published in the journal Weather, the chance of exceeding 40°C in the UK has increased to over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s (Met Office, 2025) [source-1]. This study utilized a global climate model to assess how the frequency of such extreme temperatures has changed over the decades, revealing that the UK experienced its first recorded temperature above 40°C in July 2022, when Coningsby in Lincolnshire reached 40.3°C (Met Office, 2025) [source-1].

The report emphasizes that the ongoing warming trend due to climate change is expected to further increase the likelihood of such extreme heat events. Dr. Gillian Kay, the lead author of the study, indicated that there is a 50% chance of experiencing another 40°C day within the next 12 years (Met Office, 2025) [source-1].

Analysis

The claim that 40°C days in the UK are now 20 times more likely than in the 1960s is supported by credible scientific research from the Met Office, which is a leading authority on climate and weather in the UK. The methodology employed in their studies, including the use of the UNSEEN climate model, provides a robust framework for predicting future climate scenarios based on current trends (Met Office, 2025) [source-1].

Additionally, earlier studies have indicated that the likelihood of experiencing extreme heat days has been increasing due to human-induced climate change. For instance, a 2020 study noted that the chances of seeing 40°C days could be as much as 10 times more likely compared to a natural climate scenario unaffected by human influence (Met Office, 2020) [source-2]. This aligns with the findings of the recent report, reinforcing the credibility of the claim.

The sources cited are from reputable institutions and peer-reviewed journals, which enhances their reliability. The Met Office's role in monitoring and modeling the UK’s climate makes their findings particularly authoritative. Furthermore, the consistent messaging across multiple reports from the Met Office regarding the increasing frequency of extreme temperatures adds to the strength of the claim.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The assertion that 40°C days in the UK are now 20 times more likely than in the 1960s is substantiated by scientific evidence from the Met Office. The research indicates a clear trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change, with projections suggesting that such extreme heat events will become more common in the future. The credibility of the sources and the consistency of the findings further support this conclusion.

Sources

1. Met Office report details rising likelihood of UK hot days
2. Chances of 40°C days in the UK increasing
3. The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the UK
4. UK has 50:50 chance of 40C temperatures again in next 12 years, Met Office
5. Month-long heatwaves and 40C temperatures could become common
6. Chance of UK hitting 40C again is 50/50, says Met Office
7. PDF The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the UK
8. UK has 50:50 chance of seeing 40°C in next 12 years with month-long heatwaves