Fact Check: "26% of eligible Americans have not voted in the last three elections."
What We Know
The claim that "26% of eligible Americans have not voted in the last three elections" suggests a significant portion of the voting-eligible population has abstained from participating in recent elections. To evaluate this claim, we need to understand voter turnout statistics and the definitions of eligible voters.
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Voting Eligible Population (VEP): This is defined as all citizens who have the legal right to vote, excluding non-citizens and those disenfranchised due to legal reasons (e.g., felons). Estimates of VEP are derived from census data and surveys, as outlined in the Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections source.
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Voter Turnout Rates: Voter turnout is typically measured as the ratio of votes cast to the Voting Eligible Population. Historical data shows that turnout rates can vary significantly between elections. For instance, the 2020 election saw a notable increase in voter turnout compared to previous years, with estimates suggesting around 66.8% of the eligible population voted, which was the highest rate since 1900 (source).
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Recent Trends: According to the Harvard Youth Poll, there is a growing interest in voting among younger demographics, with 53% of young Americans indicating they will "definitely be voting" in the upcoming 2024 election. This suggests an increasing engagement, particularly among younger voters, which could impact overall turnout statistics.
Analysis
The claim that 26% of eligible Americans have not voted in the last three elections requires careful scrutiny of voter turnout data and the definitions of eligible voters.
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Source Reliability: The data from the Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections is derived from census data, which is generally considered reliable but can be subject to revisions and estimates. The methodology for calculating VEP and turnout rates is complex and can vary based on the definitions used.
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Comparative Data: If we consider the turnout rates from the 2020 election, where approximately 66.8% of eligible voters participated, it implies that around 33.2% did not vote. However, this does not directly support the claim of 26% abstaining over three elections, as it does not account for variations in turnout in the 2018 midterms or the 2022 elections.
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Youth Engagement: The findings from the Harvard Youth Poll indicate a shift in engagement levels among young voters, suggesting that turnout may be increasing rather than remaining stagnant. This could further complicate the assertion that a fixed percentage of eligible voters have consistently not participated.
Given these factors, while the claim may have some basis in voter turnout statistics, it lacks precise context and clarity regarding the timeframe and specific elections referenced.
Conclusion
Needs Research. The claim that "26% of eligible Americans have not voted in the last three elections" requires further investigation. While there are indications of significant non-participation in certain elections, the specific percentage and its implications need to be contextualized with more detailed data on voter turnout across the specified elections. The complexity of voter eligibility definitions and turnout metrics makes it essential to approach such claims with caution.
