Fact Check: "17 million Americans will lose health care coverage due to policy changes."
What We Know
The claim that "17 million Americans will lose health care coverage due to policy changes" stems from various legislative proposals and analyses regarding the impact of changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and Medicaid. According to a report by the Washington Post, nonpartisan estimates suggest that significant cuts to Medicaid and the expiration of pandemic-era subsidies could lead to at least 17 million Americans losing their health insurance. Specifically, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Senate version of a recent bill could result in approximately 11.8 million additional uninsured individuals by 2034 due to Medicaid cuts, along with an estimated 4.2 million losing coverage from the expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies (NPR).
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has also indicated that improper enrollments in ACA exchanges have led to widespread fraud, with estimates suggesting that around 5 million people may have been improperly enrolled in 2024 alone (CMS). This context is crucial as it highlights the potential for policy changes to both increase and decrease coverage based on eligibility verification and enforcement of existing laws.
Analysis
The claim is supported by credible sources, including the CBO and health policy experts, who have analyzed the potential impacts of proposed legislation on health care coverage. The Washington Post and NPR provide detailed estimates of how many people could lose coverage due to specific legislative changes, particularly those affecting Medicaid and ACA subsidies. However, these estimates are contingent upon the passage of certain bills and the implementation of specific policy changes.
On the other hand, the CMS report focuses on the integrity of the ACA marketplace and the necessity of verifying eligibility to prevent fraud. While it does indicate that improper enrollments could lead to a reduction in coverage, it does not explicitly state that 17 million Americans will lose coverage as a direct result of its new rules. Instead, it emphasizes the need for stricter oversight and accountability in the ACA system (CMS).
The reliability of the sources is generally high, with the CBO being a nonpartisan entity known for its objective analysis of budgetary impacts. The CMS, as a federal agency, provides official information regarding health care policies, although it may have a vested interest in promoting its regulatory changes.
Conclusion
The claim that "17 million Americans will lose health care coverage due to policy changes" is Partially True. While there are credible estimates suggesting that millions could lose coverage due to proposed legislative changes, the exact number and the mechanisms behind these losses are complex and contingent upon various factors, including the specific policies enacted and their implementation. The potential for both loss and gain in coverage exists, depending on how these policies are structured and enforced.
