Fact Check: "11.8 million people will lose health insurance due to the new tax bill."
What We Know
The claim that "11.8 million people will lose health insurance due to the new tax bill" is supported by multiple sources, including reports from the Associated Press and the Washington Post. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Senate version of the tax bill is projected to result in 11.8 million more uninsured individuals by the year 2034, primarily due to significant cuts to Medicaid and changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) provisions. The bill aims to cut approximately $1.1 trillion from federal health programs, which would disproportionately affect low-income individuals and families who rely on these services.
The legislation includes provisions that would tighten eligibility checks for Medicaid, increase the frequency of income verification, and impose work requirements for Medicaid enrollees, all of which could lead to increased disenrollment from health coverage. For instance, the bill mandates that states verify enrollees' income every six months, which could result in coverage losses for those who fail to respond to government notices, particularly vulnerable populations such as the homeless or transient individuals (AP News).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim is robust, with the CBO's estimates being a critical component. The CBO is a nonpartisan organization that provides budget and economic information to Congress, lending credibility to its projections. The estimate of 11.8 million uninsured individuals is consistent across various reputable sources, including the New York Times and KFF.
Critically, while some reports suggest that the total number of uninsured could be as high as 17 million when considering additional factors such as the expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies, the specific figure of 11.8 million directly correlates with the tax bill's provisions (Washington Post). This discrepancy highlights the complexity of the legislation and the various factors that could influence health insurance coverage.
The reliability of the sources reporting on this claim is generally high, as they include established news organizations and health policy research institutions. However, it is essential to note that interpretations of the bill's impact can vary, with some sources emphasizing the potential for increased uninsured rates while others may focus on the intended fiscal benefits of the bill.
Conclusion
Verdict: True. The claim that "11.8 million people will lose health insurance due to the new tax bill" is substantiated by credible estimates from the CBO and corroborated by multiple reputable news sources. The projected loss of coverage is primarily attributed to significant cuts to Medicaid and changes to ACA provisions, which are expected to disproportionately affect vulnerable populations.
Sources
- How millions will lose health insurance if Trump's tax bill ...
- At least 17 million Americans would lose insurance under ...
- G.O.P. Bill Has $1.1 Trillion in Health Cuts and 11.8 Million ...
- About 17 Million More People Could be Uninsured due to ...
- Here's How Millions of People Could Lose Health Insurance if ...
- Millions will lose health insurance under Trump tax bill
- GOP tax bill would mean 11.8 million people uninsured, $1.1 ...
- Here's how millions of people could lose health insurance if ...
